Alberta’s Economy

Mr. Kang: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My questions are to the

Minister of Employment and Immigration. When the boom times

were here, kids were just dropping out of school because they could

find very good jobs, had no problem making money. When the

economy is slowing, I think all those kids, you know, will be coming

back. They’ll probably want to further their education, and they’ll

want to go back to school. Lots of others, say new immigrants, too,

will want to upgrade their skills. It was easier for them before to

find jobs when jobs were plenty. Some of them will probably be

upgrading their language skills. Probably they want to go to SAIT

or upgrade their education.

The way things are going – this $40 million share is going to go

towards everything – is there any kind of plan in place to put those

242 kids back in school or all those new immigrants who want to

improve their language skills, their professional skills? How fast are

we moving on the foreign credentials recognition program? I think

it would be a good idea to put all those people through school so we

are ready for the next boom. Those are my concerns. If not, are we

going to put the cart before the horse, or are we going to leave the

horse before the cart, that kind of thing?

Do we have any number in place, you know, that this is how much

we will be needing for next year’s budget? I’m sure you must have

some idea. The way things have been going lately, what kind of a

flood of students are we going to have in our education system?

The Chair: The hon. minister.

Mr. Goudreau: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I think I

need to remind the Member for Calgary-McCall that we are dealing

with interim supply and the required dollars that are needed here.

We’re really not dealing with next year’s budget or the budget that

will be tabled then, so I’m not in a position to be able to share

numbers that will be coming out. Nonetheless, your comments are

taken very seriously about the economy and the changes in what

we’re faced with: a slowdown in the economy and more people

becoming unemployed.

As I indicated earlier in my comments, we’re still in a pretty

enviable position. We’re doing quite well as a province, where our

unemployment levels are hovering around the 5 per cent level. We

still don’t know where that’s going to be. For most areas in the

world 5 per cent would be basically considered full employment; for

us it’s not. It means that in certain sectors we do have individuals

that are looking for work and that in other sectors there is still a

demand. We will keep on providing support for training, and we

recognize that those individuals that maybe had not finished their

high school level are coming back and wanting to finish their high

school level. We are working with the Minister of Education to

make sure that they have the opportunity to do that. If there’s a need

to improve skills so they can move to a better job for themselves, we

will work with them.

Some of the things that we’ve done. For full-time students the

employment income is a hundred per cent fully exempt, and we’ve

looked at the employment income exemptions. We’re looking at

bursaries, those bursaries that are available to students. We’re

looking at the assets that individual students can have. We’ve

relaxed that. We’re providing various supports all along in terms of

making sure that they can upgrade themselves and improve their

skills. That’s not any different for anybody in this particular

province, including our immigrants. Once they’re immigrants and

are here, they’ve got access to similar kinds of support. Even with

our immigrants, through our ministry we do provide at times

additional support to improve their language skills, whether it be in

English or in French, so that they can work and be fully functional

in the province.

Mr. Kang: I think it takes me a step further. The minister mentioned

something about unemployment hovering around 5 per cent.

This is just the tip of the iceberg, I believe. You know, I think it’s

going to be much higher. When we look out there, all the economists

are predicting for the States 11 and a half per cent unemployment.

I don’t know what kind of ripple effect that’s going to have

on us. Are your projections based on 5 per cent unemployment, or

is there some different number the minister has in mind? Would he

like to share it with the House if he has it? Those are the questions

we are asked every day. Last week, when I was in my constituency,

those were the questions. At every door everybody is asking

questions: “Where are we going? Do you have any clue? You guys

are in there.” So do you have any idea, sir, what our unemployment

numbers will be like at the end of the year 2009? The year 2009 is

being predicted to be the worst year.

I remember ’81, ’82. We had the same kind of gloating feeling

that nothing is going to happen here, but we were the hardest hit.

We have the same feeling out there again, that nothing is going to

happen in Alberta, that we are okay at 5 per cent. I’m not trying to

portray a doom-and-gloom days scenario here, but there’s a concern

out there, and it’s a big concern for everybody.

Mr. Goudreau: Well, Mr. Chairman, I guess it’s the same thing.

You know, there’s no doubt that if we could predict the oil prices in

a few months, we would be much better off. We do have some

indications as to how things are going. We know that our unemployment

levels are slowly creeping up. We’re monitoring it. We’re

keeping an eye as to our numbers. We’re working very, very closely

with Finance.

We know that Alberta’s labour market did extremely well over the

last year except for the last few months. We know that it’s not

immune to some of the global changes that are happening out there,

but we also know that this particular province is very well positioned

to weather that particular storm. I think the message that I want to

leave with you is the fact that we do have, say, 4.7 per cent of people

unemployed, but we still have 95.3 per cent of the people working,

and that’s incredible. [interjection] That’s right. Is the glass half

empty or half full?

As a province we’re doing well. We’re monitoring it. I don’t

know where those numbers are going to peak and where they’re

going to go, but through our particular programs we recognize that

our unemployment levels are a little higher than they were in the last

few years. Fifteen, 20 years ago these numbers would have been

considered just excellent numbers, and as I indicated, most jurisdictions

would just love to see the types of numbers that we have.

Certainly, we’re seeing some short-term unemployment numbers.

We’re gearing up for increased caseloads. You know, I guess you’ll

have to wait till our budget is tabled to see where our numbers are

heading.